Sunday, September 04, 2005

One humble fan's NFL predictions

Just my $.02 on the NFL this season. As an Eagles fan, I'm just happy that football season is upon us, so I can finally stop hearing Redskins fans talk about the Redskins winning the division this season. It's actually happened. And I don't think it was the liquor talking, either.

AFC East
1) NY Jets (10-6): This is the toughest division in football, but I think the Jets are ready to dethrone the Pats. Chad Pennington absolutely has to stay healthy though, or the division champ could well be the...

2) Buffalo Bills (9-7): That's right. This team is that good. Great defense and a good ground game. JP Losman is the only real question on this team, but quarterback is also a fairly important position. Willis McGahee is obviously the key to this team's success.

3) New England Patriots (9-7): Too talented to fall completely out of the playoff hunt, but too many questions in the coaching department. Bill Parcells hasn't won a playoff game without Bill Belichek coordinating his defense. I don't see how Belichek is going to get over the loss of both of his coordinators that quickly. Quick, who were his coordinators in Cleveland?

4) Miami Dolphins (5-11): Gus Frerotte or AJ Feeley? Ricky's curveball only crowds the backfield, and doesn't help them at QB. They'll stink for another year or two.

AFC Central
1) Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3): The best in the conference last year, except for the "any given Sunday" at the end of January. Roethlisberger is the real deal. He should get this team back to another AFC Championship game.

2) Cincinnatti Bengals (9-7): People are writing off the Bengals because of the preseason. I'm not buying it completely. Cincy has too many weapons to not finish above .500. The Johnsons (Chad and Rudi) alone keep this team in any game.

3) Baltimore Ravens (8-8): Good defense, just don't know how quickly they'll take to the 46 defense. The biggest problem with this defense is that it can lead to big plays for the opposing offense. The Ravens' D better gamble right a lot, because their O won't keep them in many games.

4) Cleveland Browns (3-13): The Big Dawg lost a lot of weight. And the Browns are bad.

AFC South
1) Indianapolis (12-4): Hey, Peyton Manning, guess what? Bill Belichek won't beat you up and steal your playoff lunch money this season! Bill Cowher will instead. The Peyton Manning Face will be seen this January as he walks to the visitors' sideline at Heinz Field.

2) Houston Texans (9-7): Let the David Carr coming out party begin! This is Carr's make-or-break season. He's got the weapons on offense, and a reasonably competent defense. If the Texans aren't in the hunt at the end of the season, look for them to begin the hunt for a new franchise QB.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10): Some people think these guys are good. I don't.

4) Tennessee Titans (4-12): The Titans have been hit hard by cap woes, injuries, and free agency. Jeff Fisher will build this team back. If the front office lets him.

AFC West
1) Oakland Raiders (11-5): These guys are the outdoor version of the Colts and Rams. Lots of firepower, both on and off the field. Randy Moss admits to smoking pot. So he gets sent to California! What are the odds that Moss drives Kerry Collins back to the bottle?

2) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7): I wonder if Dick Vermiel is thanking the knee that it decided to get injured (That's a thinly-veiled jab at recently released WR Freddie Mitchell). Kansas City's defense still has a lot to prove before we pencil them into a playoff spot.

3) San Diego Chargers (8-8): The Chargers come back to earth a little this year. I just don't think Drew Brees is really as good as he played last year. He's not as bad as he was in '03, but I think last year was just a flash in the pan.

4) Denver Broncos (6-10): Jake Plummer sucks. And Ashley Lelie is the only weapon in the passing game, but he can't do anything other than run straight down the field. The Broncos will still be able to run the ball, however.

NFC East
1) Philadelphia Eagles (12-4): The most substantial loss this team has taken so far is the injury to WR Todd Pinkston, who was relatively unremarkable last year. The TO soap opera has died down some, but just wait until the first loss. Still, the only team in the NFC that's any real threat to the Eagles isn't on their regular season schedule.

2) Dallas Cowboys (9-7): Some people have anointed the Cowboys as Super Bowl contenders. I don't see this team as any better than the '03 team that got stomped by Carolina in the first round of the playoffs. The players and the coordinator are not used to the defense Parcells wants to run. Dallas will get off to a fast start, but fade down the stretch.

3) New York Giants (6-10): Dear Tom Coughlin, Thank you for choosing the wrong quarterback. Sincerely, Eagles fans.

4) Washington Redskins (5-11): Joe Gibbs should get back to NASCAR. Or get the hell away from the train wreck in Northern Virginia. Washington wasn't good last year, and they'll be worse this year.

NFC North
1) Minnesota Vikings (10-6): The defense is bad. The offense has to deal with the loss of two major weapons in Onterrio Smith and Randy Moss. The rest of the NFC North is abysmal, though, so Minnesota should be able to win the division.

2) Green Bay Packers (8-8): The best of the trash. Brett Favre better retire before his offensive line gets him killed.

3) Detroit Lions (7-9): Joey Harrington is on a much shorter leash than David Carr. If only the Lions hadn't drafted a WR in the first round, like they have the past 18 drafts, they might be able to really get some pressure on Joey.

4) Chicago Bears (4-12): Bringing in Chad Hutchinson as an insurance policy at QB backfired big-time on Chicago. Grossman is out for most of the season, and rookie Kyle Orton is now the starting QB, as Hutchinson got cut. In fairness to the Bears, though, there wasn't much else out there.

NFC South
1) Carolina Panthers (13-3): The most complete team in the NFC this season. Injuries robbed them of a chance to defend their division crown, and bad officiating robbed them of a chance to make the playoffs and defend their conference title. Carolina should roll through the division.

2) Atlanta Falcons (10-6): The Eagles and Panthers have shown teams the light: take away the run, and make Mike Vick throw. Vick can make plays with his arm. It's almost even money on whether the play will be good or bad, though.

3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): Tampa is on the right road with rebuilding. They will begin to see payoffs this year, and they should be playoff contenders in '06.

4) New Orleans Saints (5-11): The Saints have nowhere to call home. That's going to loom big for these guys. One of their "home" dates has already been given to the visiting team. Gee, I wonder if there will be more Giants or Saints fans at the Saints' home opener in Giants Stadium?

NFC West
1) Seattle Seahawks (10-6): Mostly on the back of Shaun Alexander, who is playing for a big payday in '06. After watching teammate Walter Jones get the franchise tag for seemingly the last ten offseasons, Alexander got the 'Hawks to agree not to tag him next year as part of his signing the tender.

2) Arizona Cardinals (9-7): Laugh all you want. The Giants were in the playoff hunt until the Eli Manning Experiment started. Kurt Warner is now under the tutelage of a guy who resurrected old gunslingers like Jeff George and Randall Cunningham. Arizona has a slew of good young WRs too.

3) Saint Louis Rams (8-8): Could be higher. If their head coach wasn't Mike Martz. Some people think Tice is the worst coach in the league. I think Tice might be the dumbest, but he knows his limitations. Martz is worse in my book, simply because he doesn't realize quite how dumb he is.

4) San Francisco 49ers (2-14): Wow. These guys used to be good. I mean, really good. Now, they're horrendous.

PLAYOFFS
AFC
Wild Card
Oakland over Buffalo
Kansas City over NY Jets
Divisional
Pittsburgh over Kansas City
Indianapolis over Oakland
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis

NFC
Wild Card
Atlanta over Minnesota
Seattle over Dallas
Divisional
Philadelphia over Seattle
Carolina over Atlanta
Conference Championship
Carolina over Philadelphia

SUPER BOWL XL
Carolina over Pittsburgh

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home